Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-31 09:39Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on Thursday, the I2509 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. In terms of supply - demand, the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, while the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. Iron - water production remained above 2.4 million tons, and demand support still existed. Overall, due to the high linkage of the black series, the coking coal limit - down affected market sentiment, causing iron ore prices to decline under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were weakening downward, with the green bar expanding. The recommended operation is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 779 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the position volume was 419,559 lots, a decrease of 32,551 lots. - The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 25.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 20,682 lots, a decrease of 604 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange for I were 3,600 lots, an increase of 200 lots. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 100 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.71 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 839 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 824 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 2 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 45 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.95 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.39, an increase of 0.07. - The estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 32.009 million tons, an increase of 0.918 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 0.1417 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.6306 million tons. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 105.95 million tons, an increase of 7.82 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, an increase of 2 days. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 411,000 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.68%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 409,000 tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons; the BDI index was 1,995, a decrease of 114. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.32 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.78%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 83.18 million tons, a decrease of 3.36 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 22.40%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.18%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.14%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.41%, a decrease of 0.68 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2.83069 million tons, an increase of 35,920 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 115,700 tons, an increase of 2,230 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 24.47, a decrease of 0.16 compared with the previous period. - From July 21st to July 27th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 22.405 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 11.573 million tons, a decrease of 2.319 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - The iron ore port inventory in domestic ports, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2].