Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-31 09:39Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View On Thursday, the RB2510 contract declined with reduced positions. The July manufacturing PMI in China was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.27% (year - on - year increase). Terminal demand was poor, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, economic data was worse than expected, and combined with the limit - down of coking coal, market sentiment was dampened, causing rebar prices to fall. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward with an enlarged green column. The operation suggestion is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; position: 1,816,026 lots, down 213,107 lots; top 20 net positions: - 58,700 lots, down 59,984 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 56 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB exchange warehouse receipts: 85,034 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,380 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; (actual weight): 3,467 yuan/ton, down 103 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,330 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; RB main contract basis: 175 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory: 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; sample steel mill coke inventory: 640 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, up 0.14 percentage points; Tangshan billet inventory: 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill rebar output: 211.06 million tons, down 0.90 million tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 46.27%, down 0.20 percentage points; sample steel mill rebar inventory: 162.15 million tons, down 3.52 million tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 384.14 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 68.75%, up 5.21 percentage points; domestic crude steel output: 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1,688 million tons, up 30 million tons; steel net export volume: 921 million tons, down 89 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 93.60, down 0.11; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; cumulative value of housing construction area: 633,321 million square meters, down 8,302 million square meters; cumulative value of new housing construction area: 30,364 million square meters, down 7,181 million square meters; commercial housing unsold area: 40,821 million square meters, up 443 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's engineering machinery export value was 5.074 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. The export value of excavators was 891 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 24.16% and a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [2].