Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-31 09:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowing trend. Short - term investment should be on hold, and a high - short strategy is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract is 8,760 yuan/ton, down 525 yuan; the main contract position is 212,932 lots, down 29,745 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 66,694 lots, up 7,394 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 49,846 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 5 yuan, up 40 yuan [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 1,040 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. - Downstream Situation: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - Starting from the trading time on August 1, 2025, the trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted. Non - futures company members or customers are limited to a maximum of 500 lots of daily opening positions on the industrial silicon futures SI2509 contract, and 2,000 lots on the SI2510, SI2511, SI2512, and SI2601 contracts [2]. - Trump announced that tariffs will start on August 1, with a 50% tariff on imported copper. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply situation this week is complex. In the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain their current production rhythm. In the southwest region, enterprises in Baoshan are actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers rely on self - owned power plants, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - The supply side may see a potential increase in overall output due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions. On the demand side, in the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen due to a monomer plant fire, supporting industrial silicon; in the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, and downstream demand has declined significantly; in the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, and demand is difficult to boost [2].