Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, the supply side has limited elasticity. Sinopec is expected to have low production, and refineries without quotas have no motivation to produce. Although production has increased year-on-year, it remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The actual performance of the demand side will determine the intensity of inventory reduction during the peak season. In the short term, affected by precipitation in the South, demand is weak, spot prices are running weakly, and with oil prices fluctuating weakly, cost support is limited. Asphalt is expected to mainly fluctuate, and the cracking spread is expected to be slightly stronger [4][34]. - The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be between 3,500 and 3,700 yuan/ton [4][34]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Preface Summary Market Review - In July, the peak season for crude oil demand was mediocre. The near - end tight - balance pattern was maintained, and geopolitical and macro factors had intermittent impacts. Prices fluctuated within a range. The cost - side price guidance for asphalt was limited, and the main futures contract fluctuated narrowly between 3,550 and 3,650 yuan/ton. Main refineries maintained intermittent production, with some reducing or halting production. The supply pressure in the region was limited, supporting a slight increase in asphalt spot prices. The basis in East China and Shandong remained at a high level. Demand improved gradually but was affected by weather factors and fell short of expectations. Demand in Shandong was affected by high temperatures and rainfall, and demand in South China was affected by typhoon weather. The spot price in South China declined, and the South China basis also decreased month - on - month, reaching a median level compared to the same period [3][8]. Market Outlook - In the third quarter, the supply side has limited elasticity. Sinopec is expected to have low production, and refineries without quotas have no motivation to produce. Although production has increased year - on - year, it remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The actual performance of the demand side will determine the intensity of inventory reduction during the peak season. In the short term, affected by precipitation in the South, demand is weak, spot prices are running weakly, and with oil prices fluctuating weakly, cost support is limited. Asphalt is expected to mainly fluctuate, and the cracking spread is expected to be slightly stronger. The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be between 3,500 and 3,700 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Fluctuation. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be strong. - Options: Wait - and - see [5]. Part Two: Fundamental Situation Market Review Same as the market review in the preface summary [3][8]. Supply Overview - From January to June 2025, the total asphalt production of domestic refineries was 13.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons or 4%. In June, asphalt production was 2.32 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 300,000 tons. Compared with the previous production plan, PetroChina increased production by 90,000 tons, Sinopec by 110,000 tons, CNOOC decreased by 20,000 tons, and local refineries decreased by 90,000 tons [14]. - The planned total asphalt production of domestic refineries in July was about 2.29 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons or 2%, and a year - on - year increase of 240,000 tons or 12%. PetroChina's planned asphalt production in July was about 520,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. Sinopec's planned asphalt production in July was about 370,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. CNOOC's planned asphalt production in July was about 200,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons and basically unchanged year - on - year. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in July was expected to be about 1.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons or 26%, and a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons compared to the production plan in June [14]. - From January to August 2025, China's asphalt production is expected to be about 17.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons or 7%. From January to August, PetroChina's asphalt production is about 3.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 590,000 tons or 21%; Sinopec's is about 4.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 600,000 tons or 12%; CNOOC's is about 1.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%; and local refineries' is expected to be about 17.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons or 7%. In August, the planned total asphalt production of domestic refineries is about 2.41 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 130,000 tons or 5%, and a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons or 25% [15]. - The planned asphalt production of local refineries in August 2025 is expected to be about 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons or 27%, and a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons compared to the production plan in July. In August, demand in the North will be further released, and with the continuous improvement of asphalt production profits, the production enthusiasm of some refineries has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas still have no plan to produce asphalt under the pressure of negative profits, and some refineries have maintenance plans, which limits the month - on - month increase in local refinery asphalt production [17]. - In the first half of 2025, China's asphalt imports were 1.725 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.95 million tons (-11.5%). Imports still mainly came from South Korea and the Middle East. Imports from South Korea were about 610,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons (-11%); imports from the Middle East were about 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 80,000 tons (+13%). Imports from Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand decreased, with about 330,000 tons imported in the first half of the year, a year - on - year decrease of about 200,000 tons (-37%), accounting for 19% of total imports, a decrease of about 8 percentage points [17]. Demand Overview - In July, affected by weather factors, asphalt demand improvement fell short of expectations. Southern demand was still suppressed by rainfall, and demand in Shandong was affected by high temperatures and rainfall. In August, demand is expected to be steadily released as the weather improves. Some projects in Shandong are expected to rush to work in August, which is beneficial to demand. In South China, terminal demand will be gradually released after the typhoon season [22]. - Refinery shipments remained stable, at a neutral level compared to the same period. In the week of July 25th, shipments were 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons. For terminal demand, the capacity utilization rate of road - modified asphalt has steadily recovered to the level of the same period last year, reaching 27%, a month - on - month increase of 3%. The operating rate of waterproofing membranes is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [22]. Inventory and Valuation - The overall industrial chain inventory remained at a low level, with low supply and upward demand expectations. In July, the asphalt refinery inventory rate was 25.1%, a significant month - on - month decrease of 5.5%, and at the lowest level compared to the same period in history. The refinery inventory rate in East China decreased significantly, and in the Northwest, it also decreased due to project construction and refinery production cuts. The refinery inventory level in South China increased due to rainfall suppressing demand. The social inventory rate was stable at around 35% in July, and it is expected to decline in August as demand improves in some areas [27]. - In July, the peak season for crude oil demand was mediocre, and the cost - side price guidance for asphalt was limited. Asphalt refinery processing profits declined compared to the low - cost period in June, and the refinery's losses increased slightly. As of July 28th, the loss was - 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 107 yuan/ton compared to the end of June. In July, the discount of diluted asphalt remained at - 5.5 US dollars/barrel. On July 24th, Chevron regained the operating license in Venezuela, and attention should be paid to the logistics changes in the diluted asphalt segment [27]. - In terms of basis, the main asphalt futures price fluctuated. Spot prices in East China and Shandong increased slightly, while the spot price in South China decreased due to typhoon rainfall. The basis in East China increased by 15 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shandong was stable at around 140 yuan/ton. Both were at relatively high levels compared to the same period. The basis in South China fell to a low level, - 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [28]. Part Three: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations Future Outlook Same as the market outlook in the preface summary [4][34]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Fluctuation. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread fluctuates at a high level. - Options: Wait - and - see [35].
银河期货沥青8月报：供应库存低位支撑，旺季需求预期仍存-20250731
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-31 09:45