瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic nickel ore supply is tight, the smelting end has profit losses, some non - integrated smelters choose to cut production, the demand end has mixed performance, and the recent supply and demand are both weak. The domestic social inventory increases, the overseas LME inventory decreases, and the cancelled warrants rise. Technically, the price drops while the positions rise, with a strong short - selling atmosphere, breaking below the MA60 support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with a light position [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,830 yuan/ton, down 1,890 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,085 US dollars/ton, down 240 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 97,451 lots, an increase of 4,816 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 17,819 lots, an increase of 853 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 208,692 tons, an increase of 600 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,451 tons, an increase of 174 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,278 tons, an increase of 960 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,705 tons, down 54 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,150 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) price is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai electrolytic nickel bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 208.37 US dollars/ton, down 2.75 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 987.87 million tons, an increase of 39.51 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, down 7.57 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 billion tons, down 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, down 15,200 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, deciding to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in Beijing in October, with the main agenda of reporting work to the Central Committee and studying suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work for the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support interest rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed down. Powell did not give guidance on a September interest rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average level [2]