瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 31, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1045.5, down 7.97% and hitting the daily limit. After several macro - events settled, market sentiment weakened. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory generally decreased, clean coal inventory shifted from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, import cumulative growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months, and total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 31, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1601.0, down 4.93%. The spot market started the fifth round of price increase. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, there was no obvious incremental policy expectation, and with the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. Fundamentally, raw - material inventory rebounded, this period's hot - metal output was 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons, with high hot - metal production and no pressure on coal - mine inventory, and the total coking coal inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 54 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1045.50 yuan/ton, down 71.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1601.00 yuan/ton, down 75.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 783278.00 lots, down 10291.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 50815.00 lots, down 241.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 108407.00 lots, down 14621.00 lots; net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 6493.00 lots, up 874.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 89.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 53.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1000.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was 9.00 yuan/ton, up 75.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 354.50 yuan/ton, up 71.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80%; raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.60 million tons, down 1.20 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 512.04 million tons, down 41.46 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports was 250.33 million tons, down 2.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 985.38 million tons, up 56.27 million tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 80.12 million tons, down 7.43 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 799.51 million tons, up 8.41 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 639.98 million tons, up 0.99 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 12.75 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.45 days, down 0.01 days [2]. - Coking coal import volume was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% [2]. - Ton - coke profit of independent coking plants was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan; coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.78%, down 0.14% [2]. - Crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to study suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development [2]. - The US will impose a 15% tariff on South Korea, a 40% additional tariff on Brazil (total tariff reaching 50%), and a 25% tariff on goods from India [2]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global electricity demand will grow strongly, with an expected growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026 [2]. - The Bank of Canada maintained the key policy rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive time and said the risk of a serious escalation of the global trade war has weakened [2].