瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - Although the supply of new cotton is tight before it comes onto the market, the downstream demand remains weak, the weather-related factors have subsided, and the market has expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract closed lower and is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short on rallies and control risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 13,650 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn contract was 19,770 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -26,047 lots, down 3,301 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was -36 lots, up 141 lots - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 349,549 lots, down 26,389 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 4,525 lots, down 859 lots - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,940 sheets, down 115 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91 sheets, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B was 15,325 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure cotton combed 32-count yarn was 20,680 yuan/ton, unchanged - The China Imported Cotton Price Index FCIndexM with 1% tariff was 13,581 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index FCIndexM with sliding duty was 14,337 yuan/ton - The arrival price of imported pure cotton combed 32-count yarn was 24,047 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure cotton carded 32-count yarn was 22,082 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons - The cotton-yarn price difference was 5,355 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons - The daily profit of imported cotton was 1,110 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.8298 million tons, down 0.6289 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days were 35.46 days, up 2.57 days - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, up 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 58.3566 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for cotton was 12.44%, down 0.95%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for cotton was 12.44%, down 0.95% - The 20-day historical volatility of cotton was 10.55%, up 0.92%; the 60-day historical volatility of cotton was 9.15%, up 0.44% [2] Industry News - As of July 30, 2024, 24:00, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises was 30,127,638 bales, totaling 6.803087 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.79%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.432548 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.22% [2] International Situation - The December ICE cotton contract closed down 0.24% on Wednesday. Affected by the decline in the grain market, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the extension of Sino-US tariff measures, the price of US cotton futures continued to decline. The Sino-US talks in Stockholm ended, and the relevant Chinese officials said that according to the consensus of the new round of Sino-US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to extend the suspended 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures as scheduled. The tariffs of the two countries have not changed, and no final trade agreement has been reached [2] Domestic Situation - Cotton is in a de-stocking state, and there is no news about quotas. The supply is tight before the new cotton is listed. On the demand side, the textile industry is in the off-season, and inland textile enterprises have no profit. The overall operating rate continues to decline, and due to the recent rise in raw material prices, enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials. In terms of new crops, the overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025. The temperature in Xinjiang decreased later this week, and the weather-related factors cooled down [2]