关税纠偏后，铜价的可能走向

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is Neutral, which has been downgraded [7] Core Insights - The significant drop in copper prices is attributed to the U.S. government's unexpected policy shift regarding tariffs on copper imports, which did not meet market expectations [4][5] - The U.S. is highly dependent on imported refined copper, with 2024 consumption projected at 1.545 million tons and domestic production at 826,000 tons, leading to a compromise in tariff policy to protect domestic manufacturing [5] - Short-term impacts include increased price volatility, a return to average price differentials between COMEX and LME copper, and rising U.S. copper inventories due to trade shifts [5] - Mid-term expectations suggest a return to fundamental pricing logic as the tariff policy stabilizes, with potential for price recovery during the fourth quarter production peak [5] - Long-term supply constraints remain, with challenges in copper mining exploration and development, supporting a bullish outlook for copper prices [9] Summary by Sections - Tariff Policy Impact: The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on copper semi-finished products and high-copper derivatives, leading to a significant market reaction with a 17.88% drop in COMEX copper futures [3][4] - Market Dynamics: The initial expectation of comprehensive tariffs led to speculative trading, which was disrupted by the actual policy announcement, resulting in a historical price drop [4] - Supply and Demand Outlook: The long-term supply bottleneck in copper mining and the increasing importance of copper in electrical and AI industries suggest a sustained upward price trend despite short-term volatility [9]