燃料油8月报-20250731
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-31 09:57
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: In the third quarter, the supply pressure is slightly less than expected. The demand for feedstock is favorable due to the peak season of refined oil and the increase in fuel oil consumption tax deduction in China. The seasonal power - generation demand is gradually declining, and attention should be paid to the import logistics changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia [5][63]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply continues to rise, and the downstream demand has no specific driving force. The spot premium fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the export logistics changes of low - sulfur fuel oil in the near term, the adjustment and issuance rhythm of low - sulfur quotas [63]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil: In July, it was suppressed by high near - term supply and inventory. The spot premium and cracking in Singapore fluctuated at low levels. The demand for power generation in the Middle East and Egypt decreased, while the feedstock demand in China began to pick up slightly after the tax reform. The market expected an increase in high - sulfur heavy raw materials [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It maintained a weak oscillating market in July. The low - sulfur cracking followed the gasoline cracking and continued to decline. The short - and medium - term supply was abundant with an expected increase. The demand had no specific positive drivers, and shipping demand was affected by macro - tariff and geopolitical issues [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. The demand for feedstock is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the power - generation demand and import logistics in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply continues to rise, and the downstream demand remains weak [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near term and wait and see. - Options: None [6][63]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil: Similar to the previous review, it was affected by supply and demand factors, with the spot premium and cracking in Singapore declining [10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Maintained a weak oscillation. The short - and medium - term supply was abundant, and the demand was affected by macro and geopolitical issues [10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - High - sulfur fuel oil: - Russia: The refinery offline capacity was increased twice in July, and the export was at a very low level in the same period. The sanctions from Europe and the United States were gradually intensified [19][20]. - Mexico: The high - sulfur supply decreased significantly, and the Olmeca refinery's secondary device was gradually put into operation [23]. - Middle East: The high - sulfur export was stable at a low level, and the export to the pan - Singapore region decreased significantly [27]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: - South Sudan: The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw materials has recovered stably, and the 8 - month loading tenders have increased compared with July [43][44]. - Middle East Al - Zour Refinery: The low - sulfur export is expected to remain at a stable high level, and the supply to the pan - Singapore region has increased month - on - month [46]. - Nigeria Dangote Refinery: The RFCC device is still unstable in operation, and low - sulfur export tenders are continuously issued [49]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - High - sulfur fuel oil: - Marine fuel demand: It is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships with desulfurization towers [33]. - Feedstock demand: The increase in the domestic consumption tax deduction ratio supports the subsequent feedstock demand, and the import is expected to recover stably [36]. - Power - generation demand: The power - generation demand in Egypt remains high, and the demand in the Middle East is expected to be strong in July and then decline gradually [39][40]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: - Marine fuel demand: It is stable, and the low - sulfur fuel oil loading in Singapore and other places has certain fluctuations [52]. - Domestic production and demand: The domestic bonded low - sulfur production is stable, and attention should be paid to the quota conversion news [53]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation No information provided in the report. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly less than expected, and the demand for feedstock is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the import logistics in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply continues to rise, and the demand has no specific drivers. Attention should be paid to the export logistics and quota adjustment [63]. - Strategy Recommendation: - Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near term and wait and see. - Options: None [63].