美联储7月议息会议点评：降息预期下降，警惕通胀风险

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 29-30 meeting, with no rate cuts so far this year[1] - Market expectations for rate cuts this year have decreased from 2 times to 1 time following the meeting, aligning with the Fed's cautious stance[1] - The Fed acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, shifting from a previous optimistic outlook[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, reversing a -0.5% contraction in Q1, with net exports contributing positively[6] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49% in June, indicating slight improvement but still in contraction territory[6] - The July CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, with inflation expectations for the next year dropping to 4.4%[7] - Risks include financial instability, unexpected Fed policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, and potential inflation rebounds[14]