铜策略：铜关税征收范围缩窄

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the Trump administration announced a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - material - intensive finished products starting from August 1. The tariff excludes upstream copper raw materials. The scope is lower than market expectations, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. The copper market may return to the fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. The short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton. Although the Sino - US tariff talks are optimistic, there are still uncertain expectations restricting the upside space [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The market opened low and moved lower in a volatile manner. The tariff policy on copper products was announced, and the scope was narrower than expected, causing the market to give up previous gains. The domestic TC/RC fees are negative but have stopped falling. Smelters can still maintain production enthusiasm for now, and the concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant reduction in raw material inventory. The tariff on semi - finished copper may affect export demand [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved lower in a volatile manner, closing at 78,040 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 4,229 to 116,273 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,199 to 114,588 lots [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 20 yuan/ton. On July 30, 2025, the LME official price was 9,736 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 36.5 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of July 25, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 42.73 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 19,600 tons, a decrease of 351 tons from the previous period. As of July 24, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,600 tons, an increase of 50 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 138,200 tons, a slight increase of 1,350 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 255,900 short tons, an increase of 2,517 short tons from the previous period [8]