山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. The CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF have re - added positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4] Summary by Directory Gold - Core Logic: Short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, reducing the demand for hedging. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and strong employment and inflation suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - Risk Aversion Attribute: After the "constructive talks" between China and the US, the tariff truce is temporarily maintained, and no major breakthrough is announced. The US and the EU reach an agreement to avoid a trade war, with a 15% tariff to be imposed [1] - Monetary Attribute: The Fed has kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time. Market expectations for the next Fed rate cut are postponed to October, and the expected total rate cut space in 2025 has dropped back to around 25 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly [1] - Commodity Attribute: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strength of the RMB suppresses domestic prices [1] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] Silver - Fundamentals: CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF have re - added positions [4] - Inventory: The recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5] Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.5%, the discount rate is 4.5%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.4%, and the Fed's total assets are 6,708.939 billion US dollars [7] - Inflation and Economic Growth: The year - on - year CPI is 2.7%, the year - on - year GDP is 1.9%, and the unemployment rate is 4.1% [9] - Interest Rate Spreads: The spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasury bonds is 0.47, and the spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds is 0.03 [7][9] - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,298.55 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,250.15 tons [9][10] - Fed Interest Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from 2025 to 2026 is presented in a table [11]