制造业PMI走弱，国债期货震荡上涨

Group 1: Report Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Due to the Politburo meeting in July mentioning the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, the future monetary environment tends to be loose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has rebounded to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, so Treasury bond futures bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI released in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. In general, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] Group 2: Industry News and Related Charts - On July 31, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 283.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method for a term of 7 days with a winning bid rate of 1.4% [5] - On July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [5] - The report also includes charts such as the trends of TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations [6][8][10]