多行业联合红利资产7月报：反内卷与周期红利-20250731

Strategy - The report emphasizes the need for structural adjustment in dividend asset allocation, highlighting a shift from traditional stable profit and high dividend targets towards cyclical dividends due to the implementation of anti-involution policies and positive M1 data [1][22] - The expectation of price elasticity returning significantly strengthens, indicating that cyclical dividend assets should receive more attention in the current market environment [1][22] - The South China Industrial Index has shown an upward trend for two consecutive months, suggesting that if it rises by more than 1% in August, a long-term upward trend may emerge, favoring cyclical dividends historically [1][22] Financial Sector - The banking sector experienced a pullback in July, but the second-quarter performance reports indicate a marginal improvement, suggesting continued investment value in banks [2][18] - Recommendations include focusing on banks with high dividend yields and solid asset quality, particularly smaller regional banks with high provision coverage [2][18] - The report suggests that policies aimed at stabilizing asset quality and promoting credit growth will benefit banks, especially those with strong fundamentals and risk control [2][18] Transportation and Utilities - The report anticipates steady growth in the transportation and utilities sector for the first half of 2025, recommending investment in high-dividend yielding assets like Sichuan Chengyu and other major highway operators [3][18] - The report highlights the long-term value of ports, recommending companies like China Merchants Port and Qingdao Port for their overseas asset layouts and stable growth [3][18] Energy and Chemicals - The report notes the initiation of coal mine capacity checks by the National Energy Administration, suggesting a focus on coal investments due to the strong anti-involution policies [4][18] - Recommendations include major oil and gas companies like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are expected to maintain long-term cash flow stability [4][18] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector is entering a performance verification period, with a focus on improving dividend quality, particularly in the liquor segment where leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are highlighted [5][18] - The report suggests that the current dividend yield of over 4% for leading liquor brands enhances their attractiveness as quality dividend assets [5][18] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is viewed positively due to quality and cyclical dividends, with recommendations for leading companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [7][18] - The report indicates that the sector may benefit from policy support and improving domestic sales conditions [7][18] Real Estate - The report notes a decline in new home registrations, suggesting a focus on undervalued leading companies in the real estate sector [8][18] - Recommendations include companies like Swire Properties and China Resources Land, which are expected to maintain stable cash flows and dividends [8][18] Publishing - The education publishing sector is highlighted for its stability and high dividend potential, with recommendations for companies like Southern Publishing and Media [8][18] - The report emphasizes the sector's resilience and potential for growth in new areas like AI education [8][18] Selected Dividend Asset Portfolio - The report provides a curated list of dividend assets, including stable assets like Sichuan Chengyu in transportation, quality assets like Wuliangye in food and beverage, and cyclical assets like Shaanxi Coal and Energy [17][18] - The portfolio aims to balance stability, quality, and potential growth in dividend returns across various sectors [17][18]