7月30日中央政治局会议房地产表述点评：政治局会议之后，地产政策怎么看？

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "outperforming the market" [10] Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, acknowledged the marginal improvement in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, emphasizing the need for effective risk prevention and mitigation in key areas [2] - New housing sales in the first half of 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, a significant narrowing of the drop by 15.5 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024 [2] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand housing in the first half of 2025 achieved positive growth, indicating a recovery trend [2] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 70 cities fell by 6.1% year-on-year in June, but the decline has been narrowing for ten consecutive months [2] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal, with state-owned enterprises expected to play a crucial role in urban development and renovation projects [3] - The supply of residential land is expected to continue to decrease, with a focus on quality, as evidenced by a 19.4% year-on-year decrease in planned residential land area and a 5.5% decrease in transaction area in the first half of 2025 [4] - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may serve as a policy window for the real estate market, with potential for further easing of restrictive policies and a focus on improving housing transaction policies [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector's total market capitalization is approximately 11,473.13 billion, with a circulating market value of 5,300.15 billion [6] - The sector's total revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was 3164.87 billion, while the total net profit was -92.87 billion, indicating ongoing challenges [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three areas within the real estate sector: commercial real estate (e.g., New Town Holdings), property management, and real estate brokerage, as well as high-quality state-owned and national enterprises [5]