Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - With the temporary cease - fire of the military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has shrunk. The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract has experienced a high - level correction. In the future, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend due to the divergence between bulls and bears [2][5]. - The improvement of the macro - sentiment has led to an increase in commodity valuations, and the risk appetite of the commodity market has significantly rebounded [3]. 3) Summary According to Related Content Macro Environment - Overseas markets are optimistic. The US Congress has passed relevant bills, which may lead to a loose fiscal policy and help the US debt achieve a soft landing. The US has reached tariff agreements with multiple economies, and the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US have raised high expectations in the global financial market. This has improved the macro - factors and increased the risk appetite in the commodity market [3]. Rubber Production in Thailand and Cambodia - Thailand is the world's largest natural rubber producer, accounting for about one - third of the global total output. In 2024, its production was 466.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.59%. In 2025 from January to May, production was 143.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.73%. In 2024, exports were 392.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.62%. In 2025 from January to May, exports were 177.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45%. Cambodia is an emerging rubber - producing country. In 2024, its production was 40.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.93%, and exports were 39.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.65%. Thailand's annual production and exports are 11.45 times and 9.83 times that of Cambodia respectively [4]. Impact of the Conflict on Rubber Production - The conflict area between Thailand and Cambodia is mainly in Thailand's Surin Province and Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey Province. In Thailand, the rubber production in Surin Province is limited. In Cambodia, the main rubber - producing areas are not in Oddar Meanchey Province. So the conflict has a limited impact on rubber production, and the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has decreased [5].
橡胶周报：地缘溢价消退，沪胶高位徘徊-20250731
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-31 11:08