国投期货软商品日报-20250731

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Logs: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and logs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, weather factors, inventory levels, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract reducing positions and the 01 contract increasing positions at a lower rate. The enthusiasm for long - positions was hit. Cotton inventory digestion slowed in July, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure. There were concerns about the quality of warehouse receipts. The anti - involution trading cooled, and the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation situation was still uncertain. Xinjiang has a strong production increase expectation for the new year. The 9 - 1 spread dropped significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow, and the cane crushing volume and sugar production decreased significantly year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the later rainfall may decrease, increasing the uncertainty of sugar production in the 25/26 season. The US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that the sugar price will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. Traders were bullish. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. The cold - storage apple destocking volume last week was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. There are still differences in output forecasts, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, MR, and BR continued to decline. International trade risks increased, and the Fed remained on hold, weakening the sentiment in the rubber market. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubber generally decreased. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and there was more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded, and some plants planned to conduct maintenance. The demand for tires was average, and inventories increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, the supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The anti - involution sentiment cooled, and the pulp price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price was stable. The supply from New Zealand was low. As of July 25, the average daily delivery volume of national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. The inventory pressure was relatively small. The supply - demand situation improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view [8]