Guoxin Securities·2025-07-31 11:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [7][11]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a price increase in mainstream refrigerants, with expectations for air conditioning production to rise in August due to high summer temperatures [2][5]. - The report highlights a significant demand for refrigerants driven by national subsidy policies and growth in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [7][60]. - The supply constraints from regulatory policies are expected to maintain a favorable pricing environment for refrigerants like R22 and R32, with long-term price increases anticipated [7][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance in July - As of July 30, the fluorochemical index stood at 1471.59 points, up 6.29% from the end of June, underperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 1.76 percentage points [18][20]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Price Trends - Refrigerant prices have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R410a experiencing significant increases in March, while R22 prices remained stable in the summer months [24][25]. - Future price forecasts for R32 are projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan per ton for August to October, respectively [25][26]. 2.2 Export Data - From January to June 2025, R32 exports increased by 14%, while R22 exports decreased by 34% [34]. - The average export price for R32 was 44,449 yuan per ton as of June 2025 [34]. 2.3 Production and Operating Rates - Domestic air conditioning production in August 2025 is projected at 6.735 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [6]. 3. Compliance with the Montreal Protocol - The report discusses China's commitment to reducing HCFCs and HFCs, with significant reductions planned for 2025 and 2030 [60][61]. 4. Air Conditioning Production and Export Data - The report notes a strong performance in air conditioning production in the first half of 2025, with a total of 41.08 million units exported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [5][6]. 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted, with profit growth expected due to favorable market conditions [11][10].