PX-PTA供应趋紧支撑盘面，库存结构分化拖累涨幅

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX - PTA supply tightness supports the market, but the differentiated inventory structure restricts the increase [1] - The short - term industrial chain enters an oscillatory adjustment period, and the long - and short - term factors in the polyester market may restrict the upward space [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On July 29, the PX main contract closed at 6942.0 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4838.0 yuan/ton, up 0.54%, with a basis of 2.0 yuan/ton [2] - On July 30, WTI closed at 69.25 US dollars/barrel. The PX supply is under short - term tightening pressure, and PTA supply faces dual pressures of high operating rate and plant restart. Downstream polyester demand shows a marginal weakening risk, and PTA continues a slight destocking trend but the pressure remains [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - On July 29, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6500.0 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The spot price in the East China market was 6605.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 105.0 yuan/ton [4] - The cost - side support of polyester is loosening, terminal procurement power is weakening, and the inventory is significantly differentiated. The short - term industrial chain is expected to enter an oscillatory adjustment period [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 30, compared with July 29, the prices of PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot, and some other products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume and open interest of futures contracts also had corresponding changes [5] - The processing spreads of various products in the industrial chain and the trading volume of the Light Textile City also showed specific data changes [6] 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On July 30, a Fed governor was absent from the interest - rate meeting, and the number of voting members temporarily decreased to 11. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would eventually need to continue cutting interest rates but was not ready to do so this week [7] - On July 29, Trump thought the Fed must cut interest rates this week [7] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 29, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 446.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%, including 357.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 87.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to the PX, PTA, and polyester industrial chains, including futures prices, basis, spot prices, capacity utilization rates, etc [9][11][13] 3.5 Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - The analysis is carried out from the supply, demand, and inventory sides. The supply side considers the device start - up rate and device changes of PX and PTA; the demand side focuses on the polyester operating rate and the trading volume of the Light Textile City; the inventory side pays attention to the PTA factory inventory [34][35][36] - Overall, PX may be supported by crude oil, and PTA may be supported by cost and demand. If the inventory is low, the price may rise [39]