JCF(SZ:000420) EBSCN·2025-07-31 12:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Views - The viscose filament yarn segment continues to thrive, with the company gradually increasing its market share and achieving full production and sales. The company has a production capacity of 90,000 tons per year in viscose filament yarn, contributing to a revenue of 2.791 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4% [1]. - The carbon fiber segment is expected to reduce losses in 2025, as the industry shows signs of recovery. The company has a production line with a capacity of 12,000 tons per year, with a utilization rate of 44.59% in 2024. The revenue from this segment was 320 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Viscose Filament Yarn Segment - The global production capacity for viscose filament yarn is approximately 250,000 to 280,000 tons per year, with China's capacity stable at around 210,000 to 240,000 tons. The company is expanding its differentiated product offerings, achieving over 45% market share in the high-end segment [1]. - The company is currently constructing an additional 35,000 tons per year of viscose filament yarn capacity, with civil works completed and equipment installation underway [1]. Carbon Fiber Segment - The carbon fiber industry is currently experiencing overcapacity, with domestic production capacity at 159,500 tons. The company has a production line for carbon fiber composite materials with a capacity of 12,000 tons per year and a 100% utilization rate for its 600 tons per year small tow carbon fiber line [2][3]. - The average price of carbon fiber has been declining, but recent market conditions suggest a stabilization, with the company implementing price increases in March and May 2025 [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 130 million, 183 million, and 270 million yuan respectively, reflecting significant growth from previous years [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are expected to grow from 3.883 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.011 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [5].