Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company is undervalued and is expected to stabilize its Return on Equity (ROE) earlier than its peers. The current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for valuation recovery [7][8]. - The management's proactive approach in addressing asset quality issues and the company's strategic focus on risk control are seen as key strengths that will support long-term valuation premiums [7][10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected operating revenue (in million) for the company is as follows: - 2023: 205,896 - 2024: 213,646 - 2025E: 213,032 - 2026E: 217,022 - 2027E: 224,121 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be: - 2023: -2.60% - 2024: 3.76% - 2025E: -0.29% - 2026E: 1.87% - 2027E: 3.27% [6] - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders (in million) is as follows: - 2023: 67,016 - 2024: 68,576 - 2025E: 69,936 - 2026E: 72,249 - 2027E: 75,435 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be: - 2023: 7.91% - 2024: 2.33% - 2025E: 1.98% - 2026E: 3.31% - 2027E: 4.41% [6] - Earnings per share (in CNY) are projected as follows: - 2023: 1.27 - 2024: 1.17 - 2025E: 1.17 - 2026E: 1.21 - 2027E: 1.27 [6] - The report anticipates a stable long-term ROE of around 11% due to improved net interest margins and reduced credit costs [10][9]. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes that the market has not fully recognized the management's effective actions and the sustainable ROE trend, which are critical for the company's long-term valuation premium [8][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stable dividend payout exceeding 30%, alongside a favorable fundamental outlook for 2025 [8][9]. - The target valuation is set at 0.64 times the 2025 Price-to-Book (PB) ratio, indicating a potential upside of 25% [8].
中信银行(00998):被低估的底部股份行,ROE有望更早企稳