7月政治局会议解读：长期无虞短期无忧

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the significance of formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" and analyzing the current economic situation, indicating a long-term positive outlook for the Chinese economy[5] - In the first half of 2025, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, showcasing strong vitality and resilience[5] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with total public budget expenditure reaching 18.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, surpassing the GDP growth rate[6][7] - By July 30, 2025, the issuance of special bonds reached 27,358 billion yuan, completing 62.2% of the annual plan, significantly higher than last year's 45.5%[7][8] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy maintains a stance of moderate easing, with the average interest rate on new corporate loans at 3.3%, down approximately 45 basis points from the previous year[9][10] - The central bank has reduced the reserve requirement ratio 12 times and interest rates 9 times since 2020, indicating ongoing support for the economy[9] Consumption and Investment - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points[11] - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a focus on high-quality projects and stimulating private investment[13][15] Capital Market Stability - The A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio stood at 13.4 as of July 30, 2025, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels, enhancing its attractiveness[20] - Policies to stabilize the capital market have been emphasized, with a focus on maintaining market stability and investor confidence[19][20]