银河期货玻璃期货日报-20250731

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Glass Futures Daily Report, dated July 31, 2025 [2] - Report type: Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemical Research Report [1][8][15] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - As market expectations for policies cool down, glass has gradually shifted to fundamental pricing. It is expected to have a weak short - term trend and give back the emotional premium. In the second half of the year, due to the rise in liquidity and cost floors, glass prices are unlikely to fall back to the June lows [7][9] Group 4: Summary of Each Section 4.1 Basic Data - Spot Market: On July 31, 2025, the prices of glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 1241 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, while the price of Hubei Great Plate remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton [3] - Futures Market: The prices of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all decreased on July 31, 2025. The main contract's open interest increased by 142,138 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 2,009,222 lots. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,700 lots [3] - Basis and Spread: The basis of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all increased, while the spreads such as FG01 - 05, FG05 - 09, and FG09 - 01 showed different changes [3] - Fundamental Data: Glass daily melting remained at 159,575 tons with no change week - on - week but a 6.0% year - on - year decrease. The start - up rate was 75% with no week - on - week change but a 9.7% year - on - year decrease. The inventory was 59.499 million heavy boxes, a 3.9% week - on - week decrease and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. The profits from different fuels also changed, with the natural gas profit increasing by 10.7% week - on - week and the coal profit increasing by 7.1% week - on - week [3] 4.2 Market Analysis - Market Conditions: According to Longzhong statistics, the market price of Shahe Great Plate changed by - 8 yuan/ton to 1267 yuan/ton, the market price of Hubei Great Plate remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, the market price of Guangdong Great Plate remained unchanged at 1350 yuan/ton, and the market price of Zhejiang Great Plate remained unchanged at 1320 yuan/ton [5] - Important Information: The domestic float glass market prices showed mixed trends with average trading. In North China, the market was stable with a weak trend; in East China, prices were generally stable with minor fluctuations; in Central China, prices were stable; in South China, the mainstream prices were stable; in Southwest China, the prices of some white glass in Guizhou were raised. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.55 days, a 2.7% month - on - month increase and a 1.55% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, there were 296 float glass production lines in China with a daily capacity of 200,000 tons, and 222 were in production with a daily output of 159,600 tons. In July 2025, one production line was ignited and two were shut down. From July 25 - 31, 2025, the average weekly profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 150.36 yuan/ton, a 18.00 yuan/ton week - on - week increase; using coal - made gas was 138.14 yuan/ton, a 11.21 yuan/ton week - on - week increase; using petroleum coke was 137.71 yuan/ton, an 84.29 yuan/ton week - on - week increase. As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.499 million heavy boxes, a 2.397 million heavy - box week - on - week decrease and a 3.87% week - on - week decrease [6][7] - Logic Analysis: Some glass contracts hit the daily limit. As market expectations for policies cooled down, the prices of some related varieties decreased rapidly. Fundamentally, the daily glass output was 159,600 tons with a slight upward trend. On the demand side, the manufacturers' shipments weakened significantly, and the release of term - merchant supplies due to the decline in futures prices could form a negative feedback on the spot market. After the double - month upward trend, the inventories of middle and downstream were relatively sufficient, and the short - term restocking willingness was weak. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased week - on - week. With the increase in spot prices, the enterprise profits continued to recover, and the expected reduction in supply was postponed. As the market sentiment became rational, glass gradually shifted to fundamental pricing [7] 4.3 Trading Strategies - Single - side: The trend is weak, giving back the emotional premium [10] - Arbitrage: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage for glass 9 - 1 [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] 4.4 Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of glass basis, 9 - 1 spread, warehouse receipt quantity, main - contract open interest, main - contract trading volume, daily melting, manufacturer inventory, apparent demand, and profits using different fuels, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Longzhong Information [11][13][17][19][20][24]