2025年7月份美联储议息会议点评：经济韧性仍然存在，降息路径尚不明朗

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% as expected. The meeting's signals were relatively neutral compared to pre - meeting expectations, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. Fed Chair Powell did not clearly guide on the future rate - cut path, and the threshold for future rate cuts remains uncertain. Market rate - cut expectations retreated after the meeting, causing fluctuations in major assets [1][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pre - meeting Concerns: Is it the Prelude to a September Rate Cut? - Since the last meeting, US economic data has shown resilience, with some indicators having inflection signs. In June, core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, and the labor market cooled with 7.437 million job openings. GDP growth was affected by net exports, and the concern about stagflation remained [2]. - US and major economies' tariff policies became clearer in July, and market risk preferences continued to recover. Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates, but the market considered it a low - probability event that the Fed's independence would be impacted [2]. - Two key points for the meeting were whether the Fed would provide more guidance on the rate - cut path while keeping rates unchanged, and whether Fed理事沃勒 and鲍曼 would vote against the rate - hold decision, which would increase the uncertainty of the rate - cut expectation for the year [3]. 2. Meeting Content: No Guidance on Rate Cuts in September and Beyond, Cooling Market Expectations - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Fed理事鲍曼 and沃勒 voted against, preferring a 0.25% rate cut [4]. - At the press conference, Powell did not guide on a September rate cut, cooled the market's September rate - cut expectation. He thought the job market was balanced, inflation was moving towards 2%, service inflation slowed while commodity inflation rose, and economic growth slowed due to reduced consumer spending. The removal of the "uncertainty has decreased" statement had no special meaning, and the process of final tariff estimation was not near the end [5]. - The meeting emphasized economic cooling factors and showed internal differences. The signal was relatively neutral, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. After the press conference, market rate - cut expectations retreated, and major assets fluctuated [6][7]. 3. Market Outlook: Tracking the Continuity of Geopolitical and Economic Stability, and the Implementation of Anti - Involution and Domestic Demand Expansion - After the June meeting, the report proposed to track three macro contradictions: the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on risk preferences, the progress of tariff negotiations, and domestic policies on expanding domestic demand [8]. - Since the June meeting, the Israel - Iran issue was quickly resolved, geopolitical risks were under control, tariff levels were determined, and domestic "anti - involution" policies were moving from expectation to implementation, with fiscal policies showing more signs of strength [8]. - The Fed maintained a wait - and - see attitude in July. Future macro contradictions should be observed from three aspects: geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and the smooth suspension of Sino - US tariffs, and the hedging effect of domestic policies on the decline in external demand [9][10][11].