国投期货化工日报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not clearly specified, but market shows signs of limited upward momentum [2] - Pure Benzene: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with potential for seasonal improvement in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - PX and PTA:中期加工差有修复驱动，但需等待下游需求恢复 [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to continue the downward trend [5] - Short - fiber: Considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term [5] - Bottle - chip: Long - term pressure from over - capacity limits processing margin repair [5] - Methanol: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [6] - Urea: Short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - PVC: Short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic Soda: Futures price is expected to face pressure at high levels in the long - term [7] - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [8] - Glass: Market returns to real - world trading after the subsiding of sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally in a complex situation with a mix of supply - demand imbalances, cost factors, and policy impacts across different sectors [2][3][5] - Different products have different supply - demand characteristics, and their price trends are affected by factors such as raw material prices, downstream demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures closed down with limited market digestion capacity and weak upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. PE had increased supply pressure and limited demand improvement, while PP had inventory transfer and weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene had cost support from rising oil prices but faced weak supply - demand. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band trading [3] - Styrene futures had strong cost support but weak supply - demand, with high supply and stable demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined due to weak domestic commodity sentiment. PX had overseas device shutdowns and PTA had reduced load [5] - Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall with stable demand and increasing domestic supply [5] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed raw materials down. Short - fiber had potential for medium - term improvement, while bottle - chip faced long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell with increased imports and low - level inventory. Attention should be paid to macro - policies [6] - Urea futures hit a new low. The market was in the demand off - season with weak short - term trends [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued to weaken with high supply and increasing inventory during the off - season [7] - Caustic soda ran weakly with improved comprehensive profits but high - level supply pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash touched the daily limit down with supply - demand pressure and expected weak short - term fluctuations [8] - Glass also touched the daily limit down. The market returned to real - world trading with weakening sales and inventory accumulation [8]