2025Q2 美国 GDP 和 7 月 FOMC 点评：美联储鹰派继续

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reached 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous quarter's -0.5%[7] - The main supports for GDP growth were a decrease in "import rush," resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment[7] - The contribution of net exports to GDP increased to 4.99% in Q2 2025, compared to a drag of 4.61% in Q1 2025 due to the "import rush" effect[10] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change[22] - There is increasing internal division within the Fed, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating growing dissent[22] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and a hawkish stance, suggesting that future decisions will be data-driven rather than politically influenced[22] Inflation and Market Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs, which have not yet fully impacted consumer prices, potentially constraining future rate cuts[23] - The market's expectation for rate cuts has narrowed, with only one rate cut anticipated in October 2025, reflecting a shift in sentiment[23] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of 2025, influenced by rising inflation expectations and economic policies[26] Stock Market Projections - The US stock market may experience short-term volatility but is expected to maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in technology sectors supported by capital expenditures[27] - The anticipated implementation of tax cuts is expected to benefit small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly those represented by the Russell 2000 index[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected increases in tariffs leading to significant economic downturns and inflation spikes, as well as challenges to the Fed's independence from political pressures[29]