国投期货贵金属日报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Overnight, the US announced that the annualized quarterly rate of GDP in Q2 rebounded by 3%, exceeding expectations, and ADP employment increased by 104,000, also exceeding expectations and the previous value. After the data release, the US dollar rebounded, and precious metals fell under pressure. The Fed meeting maintained the interest rate as expected, with increasing internal differences. Powell reiterated that rate cuts would depend on data. Recently, geopolitical risks have been stable, tariff negotiations have become clearer, the risk of economic recession has decreased, and the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed the performance of precious metals, and the shock adjustment may continue. Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims and PCE data tonight [1] Summary According to Related Content Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%. Governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated rate cuts. Powell avoided guiding on a September rate cut, stating that the current monetary policy stance is in a favorable position, emphasizing dependence on data. The market's bet on the Fed's full - year rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP [2] Tariff Policies - Trump signed an executive order to suspend the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods. He set August 1st as a non - extendable deadline, with India to pay 25% tariffs and be fined for purchasing military and energy products from Russia starting August 1st. He also announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products (excluding copper ore and cathode copper) starting August 1st, causing US copper to plummet 18%. An executive order was signed to impose a 40% tariff on Brazil, making the total tariff reach 50% (excluding aircraft and energy sectors) 7 days later. A comprehensive trade agreement was reached with South Korea, with a 15% tariff on South Korea, and South Korea will invest $350 billion and purchase $100 billion worth of energy products. Canada may not end trade negotiations with the US by August 1st, and France is negotiating for tariff exemptions on wine and spirits [2] US Economic Data - The US economic growth in Q2 was 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the expected 75,000, rebounding to the highest growth level since March [3]