Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as tariffs, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic sentiment. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices declined on Thursday, breaking below the MA60 moving average. Trump excluded refined copper from import tariff hikes, mainly targeting copper processed products, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation. Hold short positions [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai Aluminum slightly corrected, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by over 10,000 tons compared to Monday, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. The position of Shanghai Aluminum continued to fall from a high to below 600,000 lots, and it may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai Aluminum, with a Baotai spot price of 19,600 yuan. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative, with short - term price pressure but some resilience in the medium term compared to aluminum prices. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the price difference on the futures market widens. Recently, the alumina price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, the operating capacity has reached a new high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. Participate in short positions near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - The macro - optimistic sentiment faded, and zinc trading returned to the fundamentals. Long positions continued to reduce, and the weighted position of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 9,725 lots to 214,000 lots. The SMM0 zinc was quoted at par with the near - month futures contract. After the sharp decline in zinc prices, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to fix prices at low points increased significantly, and the spot trading improved. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 103,200 tons. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and short - selling on rebounds is still the main strategy, but be vigilant against macro - economic fluctuations in the short term [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel fluctuated, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the anti - involution theme cooled down, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals may return to the fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,150 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 100 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened significantly. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Look for opportunities to short [7] Tin - Shanghai Tin declined and broke below the MA40 moving average. The current spot tin price is 265,500 yuan, with a real - time premium of 620 yuan over the delivery - month contract. It is expected that the tin price will decline towards the MA60 moving average and 262,000 yuan. Hold short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened lower and fluctuated, performing stronger than other anti - involution varieties, and the market trading was active. The platform price is 72,000 yuan, and there is a situation of high - price but no trading in the spot market. The total market inventory continued to rise to a recent high of 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 55,000 tons, the downstream inventory slightly increased by 1,600 tons to 43,000 tons, and the trader inventory continued to increase by 1,660 tons to 45,000 tons. Traders are positive, and the sentiment of bottom - fishing in the spot market continues. The latest price of Australian ore has rebounded significantly from a low. The mid - stream production is generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the lithium carbonate futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and there is still potential for theme - based trading. Try long positions with a light position in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - After the introduction of the position - limit policy for industrial silicon futures, the market declined with a reduction in positions. The silicon price has fluctuated sharply recently. The current multi - silicon market sentiment transmission effect has temporarily ended, and industrial silicon may gradually return to the fundamental - driven logic, continuing to fluctuate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined significantly with a reduction in positions under the position - limit policy. The average price of N - type dense material is 45,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type re -投料 is 46,500 yuan/ton. Supported by the full cost, the upward trend of the spot price is expected to stabilize gradually. In the future, the PS2509 main contract is affected by factors such as the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, regulatory control, and supply - demand contradictions. The support level is in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 55,000 yuan/ton. It is likely to fluctuate widely within the range, and there are still fluctuations under policy uncertainties. Pay attention to position control [11]
有色金属日报-20250731
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-31 13:02