银河期货多晶硅8月报：预期、现实、仓单再定价，区间震荡-20250731

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Polysilicon August Monthly Report for 2025, dated July 31, 2025, from Galaxy Futures [3][10][43] Group 2: Fundamental Situation Price Changes - From July 24 - 30, 2025, the spot prices of various types of polysilicon (N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, M - type mixed material, etc.) remained stable with 0.00% change compared to the previous weekend, but increased significantly compared to the end of last month. For example, the N - type dense material increased by 35.82%, and the N - type granular silicon increased by 41.27% [15] - The prices of photovoltaic silicon wafers, cells, and components also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price increased by 9.09% compared to the previous weekend and 37.93% compared to the end of last month [15] Industry Data Charts - There are multiple charts showing industry data, including the price trend of the polysilicon futures main contract, China's monthly new photovoltaic installed capacity, photovoltaic utilization rate, component prices for distributed and centralized projects, photovoltaic component monthly output, component inventory, cell prices, silicon wafer prices, cell monthly output, export cell manufacturer inventory, silicon wafer monthly output, silicon wafer factory inventory, polysilicon monthly output, polysilicon cost and profit, polysilicon factory inventory, and polysilicon warehouse receipt quantity [12][21][22] Supply - Demand Balance - The polysilicon supply - demand balance table shows that from January - July 2025, the supply of polysilicon was in short supply, with the largest shortage of 2.71 million tons in April. However, starting from August 2025, there will be a surplus, with a surplus of 1.58 million tons in August [40] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Cost Calculation - The report provides a hypothetical calculation of the minimum selling price of polysilicon after capacity integration. After the acquisition, the average power consumption of high - quality production capacity is about 50,000 kWh. The minimum comprehensive selling price of polysilicon is 58,448 yuan/ton, and the minimum selling price of N - type dense material is 60,000 - 61,000 yuan/ton [45]