Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy: Bean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil [1] - Neutral: Soybean, Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - Sell: Live pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall commodity market in China is experiencing a decline, with anti - involution related varieties falling and market sentiment cooling. Attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance in the short term [2][4] - The Fed's July interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate, and the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations suspended the addition of tariffs. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the soybean has a high excellent rate, which may lead to an early bumper harvest [3] - For soybean oil and palm oil, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained, and caution should be exercised regarding the short - term situation of strong oil and weak meal [4] - For eggs, if the egg price can complete capacity reduction through price decline in the second half of this year, there may be a cyclical reversal [9] Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract of domestic soybeans reduced positions and the price pulled back. The market sentiment cooled, and there were policies on two - way purchase and sale. Short - term attention should be paid to precipitation in the Northeast and the weather in the US Midwest [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The commodity market declined. The Fed maintained the interest rate, and Sino - US trade negotiations were the focus. The US soybean has a high excellent rate, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is gradually increasing. The market is expected to be volatile [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil reduced positions and adjusted. The US soybean oil is in a sideways shock, and the oil - meal ratio is at a historical high. A strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related contracts fell, and the main contract positions declined slightly. Rapeseed meal pulled back 1.3% today. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [6] Corn - The corn futures continued to be weak in a shock. There were corn auctions, and the US corn has a high excellent rate. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures fell sharply. The supply is sufficient in the medium - term, and the probability of a decline after the peak is high. It is recommended for the industry to hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - The egg futures fell, and the off - season contracts broke through the support level. If the egg price can reduce capacity in the second half of the year, there may be a cyclical reversal next year [9]
国投期货农产品日报-20250731
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-31 13:17