铝及氧化铝8月月报：投机情绪降，温铝及氧化铝关注基本面拐点-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of alumina may decline due to increased supply, but high - cost capacity's full - cost range could be a theoretical support. If policies lead to a significant drop in the operating rate, the price may rise further. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply has only a small net increase, and the demand is differentiated. The price is expected to rise after corrections, and the low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium [4][5][105] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary - Alumina: If the new policy has no strong impact on alumina production or new capacity, the price may decline due to supply - demand surplus. The high - cost capacity's full - cost range (3000 - 3100 yuan) could be the theoretical support. If the policy causes a supply shortage, the price may rise [4] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply has only a small net increase. The demand in transportation and power electronics will drive consumption, while photovoltaic demand weakens slightly, and real estate and household appliances drag. The price is expected to rise after corrections, and the low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium [5] - Strategy Recommendation: Unilateral trading: Alumina between 3000 - 3600 yuan; aluminum between 20200 - 21200 yuan. Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread between the first and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum is between 40 - 70. Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] 3.2 Second Part: Policy Expectations Expand Price Fluctuations, Focus on the Change of Alumina Fundamental Contradictions - Bauxite Supply: Domestic bauxite prices are stable, and attention should be paid to non - seasonal impacts. In Guinea, although the rainy season affects shipments, the resumption of mining in some areas offsets the previous production reduction, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The import price of bauxite is expected to have limited rebound [8][10] - Alumina Fundamentals: The supply - demand surplus of alumina has increased. The operating capacity has reached a new high, while the increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is small. The import volume of alumina may increase in the second half of the year. The theoretical profit of alumina plants is expected to expand in July. After the long - term contracts are replenished, pay attention to the increase in warehouse receipts [20][24][29] - Price Logic: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the alumina price is expected to return to the fundamental logic. Wait for the policy to be implemented to assess its impact on alumina supply and price [36][42] 3.3 Third Part: The Influence of Fundamental Logic on Price is Expected to Increase, Focus on the Inventory Inflection Point in August - Macro Influence on Aluminum Price: The influence of the US tariff and domestic policies on aluminum prices is limited. The influence of macro factors on aluminum prices is expected to decline, and the focus should be on demand growth and inventory levels [44][49] - Electrolytic Aluminum Supply: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is still in progress. Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected to increase in 2026 - 2027 [50][55] - Inventory Inflection Point: The peak of domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to be between 56 - 600,000 tons. The low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium. LME aluminum has been accumulating inventory recently, but the basis has not shown a significant discount, indicating a tight supply - demand situation overseas [60][73] - Terminal Consumption: New energy, transportation, and power fields will drive aluminum demand, while real estate and household appliances will drag. The export of aluminum products is expected to decline seasonally in the second half of the year [76][89][101] 3.4 Fourth Part: Outlook and Strategy Recommendation for the Future Market - Alumina: After the speculative sentiment fades, the price will return to the fundamental logic. If the policy has no strong impact on production or new capacity, the price may decline. If the policy causes a supply shortage, the price may rise [105] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply has only a small net increase, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium. The price is expected to rise after corrections [112]