美联储7月FOMC会议点评：分歧中的坚守

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes from Board members Bowman and Waller, who favored an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the consensus [2] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating reduced uncertainty, emphasizing that economic uncertainty remains high, reflecting a more hawkish stance [2] - Powell's comments indicated that the Fed is committed to its independence despite external pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and that the impact of tariffs on the economy is still uncertain [2][4] Labor Market and Rate Cut Expectations - Powell dismissed the need for preemptive rate cuts to counter potential labor market downturns, asserting that the labor market remains robust [3] - The dissenting members expressed concerns about labor market vulnerabilities, but Powell maintained that current economic performance does not warrant a premature rate cut [3] - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from approximately 65% to around 45%, with expectations for one to two cuts by the end of 2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP showed a significant rebound in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in economic activity [9] - The labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1% [11] - Inflation indicators suggest a rising trend in commodity prices, with core PPI and CPI showing upward movements [15][16]