半导体行业2025年6月跟踪：鼓声雷响，旌旗飘扬

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [13] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery driven by AI demand and a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the domestic semiconductor sector [4][7][22] - The overall demand for semiconductor products remains resilient, with AI-enabled growth expected to drive a new wave of demand in the second half of 2025 [8][39] - Supply-side dynamics are improving, with domestic wafer fabs benefiting from increased demand and a high utilization rate, while international supply chains are adjusting due to geopolitical factors [9][54] Demand Summary - Terminal product sales showed a steady upward trend in early 2025, with notable growth in small-sized laptops and tablets driven by domestic subsidies and AI trends [8][39] - The global smartphone shipment reached 295 million units in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.00% [40] - The automotive sector, particularly in smart driving, saw significant growth, with sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 26.72% year-on-year in June 2025 [41] Supply Summary - Domestic wafer fabs are benefiting from a recovery in demand and maintaining high utilization rates, with China's integrated circuit production reaching 45.1 billion units in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [54] - The supply chain is experiencing regional shifts, with Japan's production indices showing declines, while Taiwan's wafer sales prices are adjusting due to increased orders shifting to mainland China [57] Inventory Summary - The global semiconductor industry continues to experience a destocking trend, with inventory levels in Japan and Taiwan decreasing, indicating a healthier inventory situation [10] - The expectation of a new growth cycle driven by AI-related demand and macroeconomic recovery supports the view of potential price and volume increases in the semiconductor sector [10]