美国6月核心PCE同比升，吕梁市场冶金焦价格偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as economic data, tariff policies, and government policies. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, the gold market is affected by PCE data and tariff policies, showing a short - term weak trend; the stock index futures market is affected by domestic economic data and policies, and needs fundamental support; the bond market enters a favorable period but with a volatile upward trend [13][21][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US core PCE in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, better than expected. The hawkish stance of the Fed's interest - rate meeting reduces short - term interest - rate cut expectations. The gold price fell back below $3300, and it is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term [12][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Trump increased tariffs on Canada and extended the tariff period for Mexico, which led to a decrease in market risk appetite and a short - term strengthening of the dollar index [15][17][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council Executive Meeting proposed to implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action and enhance macro - policy effectiveness. Due to the PMI in July being lower than expected, the short - term domestic economic pressure increases, and the stock market has a correction. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The unexpected rebound of inflation data increases the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts. The US stock market's upward trend slows down, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction caused by economic data falling short of expectations [23][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, lower than expected. The Treasury bond futures enter a favorable period in August, but the upward trend is volatile, and it is necessary to grasp the rhythm when going long [27][28][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased by 6.71% month - on - month, and Indonesia raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil in August. The oil market is expected to fluctuate and correct, and it is recommended to go long on dips [31][32][33]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Vietnam's coal imports from January to June increased by 13.26% year - on - year. Affected by rainfall and policies, the short - term coal price is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side policies [34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is running strongly. Recently, coking coal has been greatly affected by the macro and policies, and may stabilize in the short term after a continuous sharp decline. Pay attention to position management [4][35][37]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - India's Goa state resumed iron ore mining after 12 years. The iron ore price is mainly driven by sentiment in the short term. The fundamentals do not support sharp fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Aonong Biological's actual external guarantee balance reached 1 billion yuan. The short - term spot price of pigs may fall, and the contango strategy is still applicable for contract arbitrage [39][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continued to decline. The corn futures price started to return to its fundamentals after the weakening of the macro - sentiment. In the medium and long term, it is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, and it is recommended to hold new short positions [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of starch increased, but the downstream demand was still weak. The price difference between rice and flour is expected to remain low and fluctuate [44][45]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products increased week - on - week. Affected by weather and policy expectations, the steel price fell, and it is expected to have further downward pressure [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's copper production in June decreased by 6% year - on - year. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products. The market is worried about the outward transfer of US copper inventories, which suppresses the copper price. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach and pay attention to inventory changes [48][50][52]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot transaction average price has increased. The polysilicon price is expected to run between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in August. The price is expected to run between 8500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to pay attention to range - trading opportunities [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Glencore's nickel production in the second quarter decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Affected by macro - policies and fundamentals, the nickel price fell. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [59][60][61]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead smelter in the northwest plans to stop production. Affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals, the short - term Shanghai lead price is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [62][65]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Gatos Silver's zinc ore production in the second quarter increased by nearly 30%. Affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals, the Shanghai zinc price fell. It is recommended to take a short - position with a light position, pay attention to mid - term month - spread positive - arbitrage opportunities, and wait and see in the short term [66][68][69]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of Chinese LPG increased slightly, and the inventory rate decreased slightly. The 8 - month CP price was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term [69][70][71]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on July 31 decreased by 1.36%. The trading volume has not increased significantly. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [72][73]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price fell on July 31. The PX market is expected to be in a volatile and upward trend in the short term [74][75]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rates of texturing and weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to increase. The demand side needs further observation. The PTA price may be in a slightly upward shock in the short term [76][77][78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The transaction in the Shandong caustic soda market was moderate on July 31. The market is expected to fluctuate in the future [79][80][80]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market adjusted in different directions on July 31. The pulp price is expected to follow the commodity market's correction [81][82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder market fell on July 31. The PVC price is expected to follow the commodity market's correction [83][84]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly slightly lowered. The bottle - chip price is expected to follow the fluctuation of polyester raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by going long on dips [84][85]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Hartmann Group increased its order for new - built container ships in China. The container freight rate has confirmed a downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to spot changes [86][87][88].