中原期货晨会纪要-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest price changes of various commodities, including chemical and agricultural products, and analyzes the market trends of different sectors such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option finance [4][13][14]. - It also covers macro - economic news, including policy changes, international trade policies, and economic data, which have an impact on the commodity and financial markets [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - Chemical Products: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 31, 2025, prices of some chemical products like coking coal increased (9.326% increase), while others such as natural rubber decreased (-0.172% decrease) [4]. - Agricultural Products: For agricultural products, the price of yellow soybean No.1 increased by 0.048%, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.815% [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - Regulatory and Policy News: The National Cyberspace Administration of China interviewed NVIDIA regarding the security risks of its H20 computing chips. New regulations such as the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong came into effect on August 1, 2025 [7][8]. - International Trade News: The US will resume collecting so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1, 2025, and is still in negotiation with multiple economies [8]. - Economic Data: The core PCE price index in the US rose 2.8% year - on - year in June, higher than the expected 2.7%. In 2024, China's "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [8][9]. 3.3 Main Commodity Market Analysis 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be in a narrow - range shock. It may be strongly shocked in the short - term but will not change the downward trend [13]. - Oils and Fats: The oils and fats market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weakly shocked [13]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar price is supported by low inventory, but attention should be paid to the supply pressure brought by the concentrated arrival of processed sugar in August. The international raw sugar lacks directional driving forces [13]. - Corn: The price of corn has broken through the lower edge of the previous shock range. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term, but beware of the rebound risk caused by policy support and weather speculation [13]. - Pigs: The pig market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [15]. - Eggs: After the price correction, the possibility of a sharp decline in egg prices is not high. For the 08 contract in the delivery month, it is recommended to avoid long positions and try short positions [15]. - Cotton: The cotton price has fallen recently due to the lack of fundamental support and capital promotion, as well as the cautious market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the support level at 13,350 yuan/ton in the short - term [15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - Urea: The supply of urea is in a state of phased reduction, and the demand is mixed. The futures price may continue to be weakly shocked in the short - term, but there is an improvement expectation for autumn fertilizers and export demand [15]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda has strong support below. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [17]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke are under short - term pressure and are running weakly [17]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price is under pressure due to the US tariff policy and the Fed's interest - rate decision. The aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment due to factors such as supply increase and consumption off - season [17]. - Alumina: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, but the spot price is relatively firm. Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [17]. - Steel Products: The steel market is affected by factors such as macro - sentiment cooling and raw material price decline, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [19]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloy market is mainly affected by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate with a shock - range mentality [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions but beware of the support at 67,000 yuan/ton [19]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Options: On July 31, the A - share market declined, and the volatility of options increased. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [20].