宝城期货煤焦早报-20250801

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views for both coking coal and coke 2509 are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation on the weak side", with a reference view of "range oscillation". For coking coal, the optimistic sentiment has been released, leading to an oscillatory correction; for coke, the increase in wait - and - see sentiment causes it to oscillate [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Price and Cost: The latest offer of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1160.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12.62%, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1136 yuan/ton [5]. - Driving Logic: The previous rise of coking coal futures was due to the "anti - involution rectification". However, the over - production situation in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia is limited, and Shanxi has effectively curbed over - production after the "Three Over - productions Rectification" in 2024. The actual impact of the industry policy needs verification. After the policy expectations were fulfilled, the coking coal futures continued to adjust downward. The fundamentals of coking coal have not changed much, and the recent release of positive sentiment has led to a phased price correction. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Coke - Price: The latest offer of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.58%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.90% [6]. - Driving Logic: As the optimistic sentiment brought by the anti - involution rectification in the coal industry at the end of July cooled down and the Politburo meeting was held, the strong expectations were fulfilled in the short term, leading to a high - level correction of coke futures [6].