华泰证券今日早参-20250801

Group 1: Macro Insights - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3% from 49.7% in June, indicating a marginal slowdown and reflecting the initial effects of the "anti-involution" policy and disruptions from extreme weather [2][4][6] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also fell to 50.1% from 50.5% in June, remaining below seasonal levels [2][4] - The "anti-involution" policy has suppressed industrial production in certain sectors, while also pushing up prices for some goods due to reduced capacity utilization [2][4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI has maintained expansion for three consecutive months, while high-tech and consumer goods sectors showed a decline [2][4] - High-frequency indicators for July show a rebound in port activity, while real estate sales continue to weaken [4] - The construction sector's performance is mixed, with cement production down 5.3% year-on-year, while coke and blast furnace operating rates are higher than last year [4] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Forecasts - For overseas Chinese stocks, the earnings growth rate for the first half of 2025 is expected to continue rising, particularly in the materials sector, while technology and healthcare sectors remain robust [5] - As of July 30, the earnings forecast disclosure rate for overseas Chinese stocks is about 17%, with a current overall positive forecast rate of 60% [5] - Tactical allocation suggestions include increasing exposure to leading gaming and e-commerce companies, and focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials [5] Group 4: Specific Company Insights - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, with projected net profits of 158.5 billion, 161.7 billion, and 168.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - Meta Platforms reported a 22% year-on-year revenue increase to $47.5 billion for Q2, exceeding expectations, driven by strong advertising revenue [16] - Microsoft achieved a 15% year-on-year revenue growth to $281.7 billion for FY2025, benefiting from increased AI demand [23] Group 5: Sectoral Trends - The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a valuation shift due to low capitalization rates and consumer policy catalysts [14] - The semiconductor industry is facing challenges with customer capital expenditure adjustments, particularly affecting companies like Tokyo Electron [19] - The electric power market in the U.S. is tightening, with significant investments in nuclear energy and infrastructure development expected [8]