国信证券晨会纪要-20250801

Macro and Strategy - The US Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting indicated a hawkish stance from Powell, suggesting a low probability of interest rate cuts in September [3][9] - The PMI data for July shows a seasonal decline, with manufacturing PMI remaining below the growth line for four consecutive months, indicating economic pressure [3][9] - The "anti-involution" policy is starting to show effects, with manufacturing price indicators recovering, although overall demand recovery remains uncertain [3][9] Industry and Company - The energy storage industry is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic storage system shipments reaching 110 GWh in the first half of 2025, nearly matching the total for 2024 [15][17] - Emerging markets are expected to become significant export destinations for domestic energy storage companies, driven by power shortages and supportive government policies [16][17] - The fluorochemical industry is seeing a rise in mainstream refrigerant prices, with expectations for continued price strength due to seasonal demand increases [19][22] - Adidas reported a 12% increase in brand revenue for Q2 2025, despite tariff impacts, maintaining a positive outlook for the year [25][26] - The US agricultural sector anticipates an upward trend in beef prices for 2026, with a slight reduction in milk inventory expected [26][29]