Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, following a contraction of 0.5% in the previous quarter, exceeding the expected 2.6%[7] - However, the overall economic growth rate is projected to decline to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the second half of 2024[7] - The domestic private final purchases (PDFP) growth has weakened, with Q1 revised down to 1.9% and Q2 at only 1.2%, indicating a decline in internal economic momentum[13] Federal Reserve Policy - Jerome Powell is characterized as a hawkish figure, prioritizing inflation risks over full employment, advocating for tighter monetary policy to suppress inflation[3] - The recent FOMC meeting saw two dissenting votes, marking a notable increase in opposition during Powell's tenure, reflecting the end of a "great moderation" era[5] - The removal of the phrase "uncertainty further reduced" from the Fed's statements suggests ongoing concerns about policy uncertainty, particularly related to Trump's administration[6] Risks and Challenges - Increased uncertainty in the Middle East could significantly raise oil prices, leading to higher inflation in the U.S. and complicating the Fed's rate-cutting decisions[4] - Trump's domestic policies may face greater resistance, potentially leading to increased fiscal stimulus and unexpected easing from the Fed[4] - Heightened volatility in U.S. financial markets could accelerate capital outflows and a decline in the dollar, risking a deeper recession[4]
宏观经济点评报告:鹰派卫道士鲍威尔
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-08-01 01:25