五矿期货农产品早报-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - range upward oscillation, and the trend of Sino - US trade relations and new variables on the supply side need to be monitored [2]. - The palm oil market is affected by multiple factors. Although there are positive factors such as EPA policy and B50 policy expectations, there are also negative factors like high production in Southeast Asia, so it should be viewed with an oscillatory perspective [6][8]. - The sugar market is likely to see a continued decline in Zhengzhou sugar prices in the future, considering factors such as increased import supply and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [10][11]. - The cotton market is currently bearish. The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, and the fundamentals show slow de - stocking [13][14]. - The egg market has different trends for near - term and post - festival contracts. The near - term contracts oscillate, and the post - festival contracts can be considered for short - selling after a rebound [15][16]. - The pig market has a re - structured supply logic due to policy intervention. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of the spread between different months [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - On Thursday night, US soybeans closed lower. Good North American weather limits the upside, and Sino - US trade negotiations have not provided positive news for US soybean exports. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Domestic soybean meal spot prices are stable, with good trading volume and high提货 levels. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.2389 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.3726 million tons. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be normal in the next two weeks, and the overall weather is favorable. The Brazilian premium has risen slightly [2]. Trading Strategy - The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline at the end of August. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [4]. Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil has different trends in different periods in June. The production in July has increased to varying degrees. Indian vegetable oil importers are increasing palm oil purchases. On Thursday, domestic palm oil declined slightly, and the net long positions of the three major oils by foreign capital decreased slightly. Overall, although there are positive factors, there are still negative factors in the oil market, and the domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [6][7]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentals support the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 month period, and there is an expected increase in the fourth quarter. However, due to various restrictive factors, it should be viewed with an oscillatory perspective [8]. Sugar Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined slightly. The spot prices of sugar in different regions also decreased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped have increased. The estimated sugar production in the 2025/26 season in the central - southern region of Brazil is slightly lower than the previous season [10]. Trading Strategy - Since the second half of the year, the price difference between imported sugar and Guangxi sugar has narrowed, and the import supply is increasing. Assuming no significant rebound in the external market price, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [11]. Cotton Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The spot price also decreased. The Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Sweden, and both sides agreed to continue to suspend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures [13]. Trading Strategy - The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, which is bearish. Fundamentally, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the short - term trend is bearish [14]. Eggs Spot Information - The national egg prices are partly stable and partly lower. The supply is acceptable, the market demand is stable, and today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with a few rising or falling [15]. Trading Strategy - High temperatures have reduced the egg - laying rate, and the supply pressure has eased. The near - term contracts oscillate, and the post - festival contracts can be considered for short - selling after a rebound [16]. Pigs Spot Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly rose. The reduction in the slaughter volume of upstream breeding enterprises and the growing bullish sentiment in the market have boosted pig prices, and today's pig prices are expected to continue to rise [17]. Trading Strategy - The market is trading on policy intervention in capacity reduction. The supply logic has been re - structured. For near - term contracts, the possibility of large - scale de - stocking in the early fourth quarter has decreased, and the spread may show a positive structure. For far - term contracts, the spread is more likely to be in a reverse structure. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [18].