烧碱：旺季需求仍有期待

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, caustic soda is under pressure, but in the long - term, there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2560, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 830, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2594, and the basis is 34 [1] Spot News - Since August 1st, major alumina manufacturers in Shandong have reduced the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 760 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - At the macro level, attention should be paid to the risk of an unexpected trade war in August, and the anti - involution sentiment has weakened recently. During the anti - involution process, the fundamentals of caustic soda have not improved significantly, and there is a lack of driving force. Currently, anti - involution policies do not cover the caustic soda industry [3] - Caustic soda has insufficient motivation to increase prices due to the off - season demand, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on caustic soda supply and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts on the market [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]