工业硅：关注上游复产进度，多晶硅：短期情绪降温，盘面回调对待

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of upstream production [1]. - For polysilicon, the short - term sentiment has cooled down, and the market should be treated as a callback [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: - Industrial silicon (Si2509): The closing price was 8,760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 525 yuan compared to T - 1, - 930 yuan compared to T - 5, and 995 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 410,371 lots, with a decrease of 194,790 lots compared to T - 1, 762,508 lots compared to T - 5, and 819,936 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 212,932 lots, with a decrease of 29,745 lots compared to T - 1, 123,342 lots compared to T - 5, and 148,144 lots compared to T - 22 [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2509): The closing price was 49,130 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5,575 yuan compared to T - 1 and 4,635 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 565,838 lots, with an increase of 595 lots compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 557,957 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 126,989 lots, with a decrease of 37,501 lots compared to T - 1 and 45,575 lots compared to T - 5 [2]. - Basis and Spread Data: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium (against East China Si5530) was + 1,175 yuan/ton, with a change compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The near - month contract to continuous - first spread was - 135 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first inter - period was 62.5 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 505.0 yuan/ton [2]. - Price and Profit Data: - Industrial silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1 and 300 yuan compared to T - 5. The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,536 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 525 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,180 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 500 yuan compared to T - 5 and 12,000 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 17.6 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.6 yuan compared to T - 1 and 0.7 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - Inventory Data: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 540,000 tons, with an increase of 0.5 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 1.2 million tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory was 171,000 tons, with a decrease of 0.61 million tons compared to T - 5 and 5.2 million tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 229,000 tons, with a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared to T - 5 and 4.3 million tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - Raw Material Cost Data: - For industrial silicon, the price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 320 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 885 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon trichlorosilane was 3,350 yuan/ton, and the price of silicon powder (99 silicon) was 10,450 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News In September 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice to further regulate the supervision of existing "agricultural - photovoltaic complementary" photovoltaic composite projects. For legally and合规ly built photovoltaic composite projects using general cultivated land to place photovoltaic arrays, land - using units must fulfill planting obligations, and hardening the ground, destroying the plough layer, and leaving land idle are prohibited [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook (the range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish) [4].