白糖：巴西压榨进度加快

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The current trend strength of sugar is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 16.35 cents per pound, down 0.11 cents year-on-year; the mainstream spot price is 6030 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan year-on-year; the futures main contract price is 5793 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan year-on-year [1]. - The 91 spread is 138 yuan per ton, unchanged year-on-year; the 15 spread is 44 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan year-on-year; the mainstream spot basis is 237 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan year-on-year [1]. Macro and Industry News - The sugar - crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil has accelerated; the monsoon rainfall in India is higher than the Long - Period Average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase [1]. - China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1]. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7% [2]. - As of the end of June in the 24/25 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 2.51 million tons (-650,000 tons) [2]. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3]. - As of July 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production was 15.66 million tons (-1.59 million tons), with the cumulative MIX at 51.02%, up 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [3]. - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3].