Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side layout for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption season [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is expected to increase, and the demand side may turn weak, so methanol may face downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply and demand are weak, and there is no significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, the price is consolidating after a decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build-up pattern. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and the inventory to build up. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.34%, at $69.36; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.92, or 1.25%, at $72.55; INE main crude oil futures closed up 1.70 yuan, or 0.32%, at 531.4 yuan [1]. - Data: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.22 million barrels to 12.75 million barrels, a 1.72% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.59 million barrels to 8.46 million barrels, a 7.47% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 24.67 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 1.33 million barrels to 45.87 million barrels, a 3.00% increase [1]. Methanol - Market Quotes: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of -10 [4]. - Fundamentals: Upstream production has bottomed out and is expected to increase, while the demand side may turn weak, leading to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The inventory level has decreased [4]. Urea - Market Quotes: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +46 [6]. - Fundamentals: Domestic production has continued to decline, and the demand is weak. Exports are an important source of demand growth. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU are consolidating after a significant decline, following the trend of industrial products [9]. - Fundamentals: Tire factory operating rates have declined, and the demand is in a seasonal off-season. The supply reduction may be less than expected. The inventory has increased [10]. - Operation Suggestions: Wait and see for now, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC09 contract fell 118 yuan to 5041 yuan, and the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 4950 (-110) yuan/ton, with a basis of -91 (+8) yuan/ton and a 9-1 spread of -135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation [11]. Styrene - Market Quotes: The spot price has increased, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - Fundamentals: The cost side has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply has increased, the port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand has increased slightly [14]. - Outlook: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 0 yuan/ton, strengthening 37 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamentals: The upstream operating rate has decreased, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term [17]. - Operation Suggestions: Hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 47 yuan/ton, strengthening 27 yuan/ton [18]. - Fundamentals: The upstream operating rate has decreased slightly, the inventory situation is mixed, and the downstream demand is weak. The cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX09 contract fell 56 yuan to 6928 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 858 dollars, with a basis of 142 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of 64 yuan (-42) [20]. - Fundamentals: The operating rate has decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate is high, the inventory is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates have recovered. The inventory is expected to continue to decline [21]. - Operation Suggestions: Consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA09 contract fell 48 yuan to 4808 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan to 4825 yuan, with a basis of -15 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of -32 yuan (-34) [22]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to increase, the demand side is about to end the off-season, and the inventory has increased. The processing fee has limited room for operation [22]. - Operation Suggestions: Consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 24 yuan to 4503 yuan, with a basis of 68 yuan (+2) and a 9-1 spread of -27 yuan (+1) [23]. - Fundamentals: The supply side has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, the port inventory has decreased, and the valuation is relatively high. The fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250801
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-01 01:58