冠通期货资讯早间报-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, macro - economic news, and performance across various sectors including commodities, finance, and industries. It shows that domestic commodity futures generally declined, while the global economic situation is complex with factors like Fed's interest - rate decisions, trade policy adjustments, and regional economic data influencing market movements. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with the main contract of coking coal futures hitting the daily limit down, glass down over 8%, and polysilicon down nearly 8% [2][52]. - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.31% and COMEX silver futures down 2.51%. However, they had cumulative increases in July [2][52]. - Oil prices dropped due to a large increase in US inventories. WTI crude futures fell 0.91% and Brent crude futures fell 0.86%, but both had significant cumulative increases in July [2][53]. - London base metals closed lower across the board, affected by the Fed's hawkish stance and trade policy disruptions [3][55]. Important Information Macro - Information - The State Council emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness and promoting economic reform. The NDRC focused on building a unified national market and promoting the healthy development of the private economy [6]. - China's July PMI dropped to 49.3%, and non - manufacturing and composite PMI also declined slightly but remained above the critical point, indicating overall economic expansion [7]. - US June inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut schedule [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of July 31, the total inventory of float glass samples in China decreased for six consecutive weeks, and the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased for the third consecutive week but remained at a high level [10]. - Anhui's new photovoltaic glass furnace production cut is expected to lead to a decline in domestic glass supply and inventory in August [11]. - The ANRPC expects a 0.5% increase in global natural rubber production and a 1.3% increase in demand in 2025 [11]. - Singapore's fuel oil and middle distillate inventories increased, while light distillate inventories decreased [11]. Metal Futures - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the social inventory increased slightly [13]. - In Q2, China's gold ETF inflow reached 464 billion yuan, a record - high quarterly performance, driven by global trade risks and soaring gold prices [13]. - In H1 2025, China's exports of new - energy commercial vehicles increased by 230% year - on - year, and the overseas market is also expected to double [15]. - The GZFE solicited opinions on platinum and palladium futures and options contracts and related rules [15][16]. Black - Series Futures - In July 2025, the steel industry PMI returned to the expansion range, and in August, steel demand may continue to recover weakly, with prices fluctuating [18]. - The coking coal long - term agreement floating value in July increased by 3.8% compared to June [19]. - Some coal mines in Changzhi suspended production or reduced output, leading to a decrease in daily coal production [21]. - As of July 31, rebar production and apparent demand decreased, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [21]. - Some coking coal mines' production was restricted, and coal inventories decreased to low levels [22]. - The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton, with significant regional differences [22]. Agricultural Product Futures - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in August, increasing the export tax [24]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased compared to the previous month according to different survey agencies [25][27]. - The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar to be loaded increased [27]. - Brazil's soybean, corn, and other agricultural product exports showed different trends in the specified period [27]. - The prices of live pigs in China decreased, and the proportion of pig - to - grain decreased slightly [28]. - The drought - affected areas of US soybeans, corn, and cotton showed different changes [28]. - US soybean exports and sales showed an upward trend [28]. - Canada's rapeseed and wheat exports decreased [30]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares closed lower, with cyclical sectors falling and some technology - related sectors performing well. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined on the day but had cumulative increases in July [32]. - The Hong Kong stock market closed lower, but southbound funds had a large net inflow, and Meituan received significant additional investment [32]. - The SSE accepted the IPO application of Taimed Biopharmaceuticals, the first company under the restarted fifth listing standard of the STAR Market [33]. - *ST Guangdao on the BSE had a "ground - to - sky" board on July 31 [33]. Industry - The NHSA formulated a new drug pricing mechanism and added price items related to medical new technologies [34][35]. - The NEA is formulating policies for high - power charging facilities and promoting their construction [35]. - In H1, China's renewable energy and new - energy storage installed capacity increased significantly [35]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration required urban commercial medical insurance to avoid "involution" competition [36]. - From January to July, the sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises decreased year - on - year, and the decline in July was more significant [36]. - The MIIT solicited opinions on three mandatory national standards for electric vehicles [37]. - In July, China's auto dealer inventory warning index decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month [38]. Overseas - Brazil and India will not yield to US trade pressure [39]. - Trump criticized the Fed, and the US inflation data exceeded expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut schedule [40][41]. - Trump urged pharmaceutical companies to reduce drug prices in the US [41]. - US corporate layoffs in July increased significantly year - on - year [42]. - US initial jobless claims increased slightly, and continuing jobless claims remained unchanged [43]. - The BOJ maintained interest rates and raised the inflation forecast [43]. - Inflation in Germany, France, and Italy showed different trends [43]. International Stock Markets - US and European major stock indexes closed lower, affected by inflation and trade concerns, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September decreased [44][45]. - Apple and Amazon's Q2 financial reports showed different performance, with Apple's stock rising after - hours and Amazon's falling [46]. - Wenyuanzhixing's Q2 revenue increased significantly, especially in the Robotaxi business [47]. - Samsung's Q2 operating profit decreased significantly, mainly due to the chip business [48]. - BMW's Q2 sales and profit decreased, but vehicle deliveries increased slightly [49]. - Shell's Q2 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and the company announced a stock - buyback plan [50]. - Unilever's Q2 sales and profit growth slightly exceeded expectations [51]. Commodities - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with significant declines in some varieties [52]. - In Q2, global gold demand increased year - on - year, but central bank gold purchases slowed down [52]. - International precious metal futures closed lower, with cumulative increases in July [52]. - Oil prices dropped due to a large increase in US inventories [53]. - London base metals closed lower, affected by the Fed's stance and trade policies [55]. Bonds - The domestic bond market continued to be strong, with treasury futures rising and bond yields falling [56]. - In June, China's bond market issued a large amount of various bonds, and overseas institutions' bond custody balance reached 4.3 trillion yuan [56]. - US Treasury yields showed different trends, with short - term yields rising due to inflation data [56]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated on Thursday, and the central parity rate was also adjusted downwards [57]. - The Indonesian rupiah fell to a one - month low, and the central bank intervened in the exchange rate [58]. - The US dollar index fell slightly, and most non - US currencies rose [60].