港股8月投资策略：南向加仓踊跃，港股风险溢价或将历史性突破

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant influx of southbound capital, which may lead to a historical breakthrough in risk premiums [1][2]. - It emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" policy in China, which aims to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity, impacting both traditional and emerging industries [1][2]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - Inflation in the US is expected to rise, with core inflation projected to reach around 3.9% by the end of the year, diverging from market expectations of 3.1% [11][23]. - The report notes that the actual hourly wage is anticipated to decline significantly in Q3 and Q4, which could negatively affect consumer spending and the performance of the US stock market [23][26]. China Economic Policy - The "anti-involution" policy is being implemented to address issues in various sectors, including steel, coal, cement, and emerging industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [1][44]. - The report outlines four key aspects of the policy: regulating low-price competition, promoting the exit of outdated capacity, standardizing local government behavior, and strengthening market supervision [44][45]. Hong Kong Market Analysis - The report compares the valuation of the Hong Kong stock market with that of the A-share market, concluding that Hong Kong remains within a reasonable valuation range, with significant recovery potential in technology and pharmaceutical sectors [2]. - Specific investment recommendations include focusing on AI leaders, innovative pharmaceuticals, resources and commodities, essential consumer goods, and non-bank financial institutions [2]. Market Trends - The report indicates that liquidity has been significantly improving, with social financing and M1 continuing to rise, suggesting a favorable environment for the market [48][54]. - It also notes that the relationship between liquidity and stock prices is stronger than that between earnings and stock prices, indicating that liquidity-driven sectors may outperform [55][56].