Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to weaken [6]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar and iron ore are expected to fluctuate, and double - coking coal is also expected to fluctuate [8][9]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, silver, and gold are expected to trade in ranges or be neutral, with suggestions for corresponding trading strategies [11][13][18][20]. - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate, and soda ash's 09 contract is recommended for light - short attempts [22][24][26][28][31][33][35]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner, while apples and jujubes are expected to be weak in a fluctuating market [36][37][38]. - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs and eggs are recommended to go short on rallies, corn and soybean meal are expected to trade in ranges, and oils are at high - level with an increased risk of correction [40][42][43][45][47]. Core Views - The global economic and policy environment is complex, with factors such as trade policies, inflation, and central bank policies affecting various commodity markets. For example, Trump's new tariff executive order, changes in the US inflation index, and central bank policies in the US and Japan all impact the market [6]. - Different commodity markets have their own supply - demand characteristics. For instance, the supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced, while PVC has a weak supply - demand situation overall due to factors like export uncertainties and production capacity pressure [8][23]. - Market sentiment and macro - policies also play important roles. The "anti - involution" sentiment and government policies on consumption, investment, and industry all affect market expectations and commodity prices [6][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: Affected by factors such as Trump's tariff order, US inflation data, and domestic policies, the index futures are expected to fluctuate, especially with potential small fluctuations during the mid - August earnings report disclosure period [6]. - Treasury Bonds: After a phased rebound, the bond market may be restricted by the improved market risk - appetite and policy focus on consumption, market competition, and capital market stability, and is expected to weaken [6]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: After a sharp decline on Thursday, considering factors like the end of Sino - US talks, changes in market expectations, and the relatively balanced supply - demand in the industry, it is expected to enter a fluctuating pattern, with suggestions for waiting and watching or short - term trading [8]. - Iron Ore: With the market starting to trade the expectation of military parade production cuts after the end - of - month meeting, and considering factors such as supply and demand and the support from the steel and coal markets, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. - Double - Coking Coal: The coking coal market has a supply - demand pattern of "continuous supply disturbances and cautious demand waiting - and - watching", and the coke market has a tight supply - demand pattern with an expectation of a fifth - round price increase, but both are expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by factors such as the US copper import tariff policy, changes in domestic and foreign supply - demand, and the uncertainty of tariffs, the copper price is expected to enter a range - trading situation again [11]. - Aluminum: Due to factors like changes in the price of bauxite, the increase in alumina production capacity, and the weakening of downstream demand, the aluminum price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in a fluctuating market [13]. - Nickel: In the medium - long term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation with limited consumption growth, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with a suggestion to short on rallies [18]. - Tin: With the improvement of the tin ore supply - demand gap and the recovery of the semiconductor industry, the tin price is expected to be supported and trade in a range [19]. - Silver and Gold: Affected by trade negotiation results, US economic data, and tariff policy expectations, precious metals are expected to trade in ranges with support at lower levels [20][21]. Energy Chemicals - PVC: Although the inventory is slightly lower than last year, the sustainability of exports is questionable, and the upstream production capacity pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a focus on the 4950 - 5150 range for the 09 contract [23]. - Caustic Soda: Currently, the supply is high, and the demand is in a weak season, but there is support from the peak - season demand in the long term. It is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the 2500 - 2600 range for the 09 contract [25]. - Styrene: With limited fundamental positives and a warm macro - environment, it is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the 7200 - 7500 range [27]. - Rubber: With cost support and general downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the 15000 pressure level [29]. - Urea: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected to be neutral, with a price trend of first weakening and then strengthening [32]. - Methanol: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the impact of overall industrial product prices [33]. - Polyolefins: Affected by macro - sentiment and cost factors, and with weak downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to correct in the short term, with a focus on specific price ranges for different contracts [35]. - Soda Ash: After the positive feedback, the soda ash price is over - estimated, and the 09 contract is recommended for light - short attempts [35]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Global cotton production and consumption are both increasing, and with the expected good production in Xinjiang and weak downstream consumption, it is expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [36]. - Apples: With slow sales and normal new - fruit growth, the apple price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in a fluctuating market [37]. - Jujubes: Considering the growth situation in the production area and the market situation in the sales area, the jujube futures price is expected to be weak in a fluctuating market in the short term [39]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short term, the pig price is supported by farmers' resistance to selling and secondary fattening, but in the long term, the supply is increasing. Different contracts have different price trends and trading strategies [40][42]. - Eggs: In the short term, the egg price is driven by seasonal factors but is restricted by supply. In the long term, the supply situation is complex. Different contracts have corresponding trading suggestions [42]. - Corn: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to trade in a range, with an opportunity for a 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage [43][44]. - Soybean Meal: In the short term, it is affected by factors such as good weather and sufficient supply, and in the long term, there are potential supply shortages. Different contracts have corresponding trading strategies [45][46]. - Oils: The short - term risk of high - level correction is increasing, but the correction range is limited. There are suggestions for position - taking and arbitrage [47][53].
长江期货市场交易指引-20250801
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-01 02:28