国新国证期货早报-20250801

Report Overview - The report provides market analysis and price trends for various futures products on July 31, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coal, sugar, rubber, etc. [1] Stock Index Futures - On July 31, A-share market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% to 3573.21, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.73% to 11009.77, and the ChiNext Index down 1.66% to 2328.31. The trading volume reached 1936 billion yuan, an increase of 91.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index also adjusted, closing at 4075.59, down 75.65. [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke weighted index was weak on July 31, closing at 1625.7, down 84.4. Coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1100.1 yuan, down 93.1. Coke supply and demand remained in tight balance, with coking plants' costs rising due to coal price increases. The fourth round of price increases was quickly implemented this week, and the fifth round started. Steel mills intended to delay the implementation. Coking coal's macro - speculation sentiment cooled. The supply shortage was expected to ease in mid - August. [3][4][5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by strong sugar production signs in Brazil, ICE sugar futures declined slightly on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures' 2601 contract was pressured by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and lower spot prices, and it trended down on Thursday. Stonex reported that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season was expected to be 40.16 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume was expected to be 598.8 million tons. [5] Rubber - Due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand and the year - on - year decline in the European replacement tire market in the second quarter, the spot prices in Southeast Asia decreased. Affected by this and the decline of Japanese rubber, Shanghai rubber futures trended down on Thursday. ANRPC predicted that in June 2025, global natural rubber production would decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption would increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In the first half of the year, cumulative production decreased by 1.1% to 6.076 million tons, and cumulative consumption increased by 1% to 7.715 million tons. [6] Soybean Meal - On July 31, CBOT soybean futures declined due to favorable crop weather in the US and sufficient global supply. The unexpectedly improved good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans weakened the expectation of production reduction. US soybean export sales in the week ended July 24 were higher than expected. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures oscillated. The supply was abundant, and inventory continued to increase, pressuring prices. However, the extension of the tariff truce agreement between China and the US supported prices. [7] Live Pigs - On July 31, live pig futures trended weakly. Recently, the slaughter sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of pigs was abundant. Affected by official regulations, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased. High - temperature weather affected terminal consumption, and the pork market was sluggish. The overall market was in a state of loose supply and demand. [8] Palm Oil - On July 31, palm oil futures fluctuated at a high level and then declined. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative line. Ship - surveying agencies showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 decreased compared with the previous month. [8] Shanghai Copper - Due to the US imposing a 50% tariff on some imported copper products starting from August 1, COMEX copper futures crashed, and Shanghai copper was negatively affected. Global copper inventory was rising, and factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar suppressed copper prices. Shanghai copper was expected to continue its downward oscillation. [9] Iron Ore - On July 31, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and declined by 2.38%, closing at 779 yuan. Global iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, port inventory increased slightly, and iron - water production remained high. However, the domestic macro sentiment cooled, and iron ore prices were in an oscillatory state. [9] Asphalt - On July 31, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and rose by 0.3%, closing at 3659 yuan. Asphalt production capacity utilization increased. Although demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall, there was still a recovery expectation, and low inventory supported prices. Short - term prices would fluctuate. [9] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13655 yuan/ton. On August 1, the basis price at the Xinjiang designated delivery warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange was at least 430 yuan/ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 115 lots compared with the previous day. [10] Logs - On July 31, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 824, with a low of 819, a high of 830, and closed at 821.5, with a position reduction of 754 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no significant contradiction in supply - demand, and spot trading was weak. [11] Steel - On July 31, rb2510 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3390 yuan/ton. The production and inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand decreased significantly. Macro factors led to the decline, and there was a risk of spot price correction. [11] Alumina - On July 31, ao2509 closed at 3222 yuan/ton. Anti - involution measures had limited impact on clearing old - style alumina production capacity. In August, a 1.2 - million - ton new production line in Guangxi might be put into operation, and some maintenance lines in Shandong might resume production. The supply shortage might ease, but the actual output increase in August was expected to be limited. [12] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 31, al2509 closed at 20510 yuan/ton. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US dollar index remained strong. Domestic anti - involution policies drove up industrial metals. In the short term, the ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased, demand weakened, and social inventory increased slightly but remained low. Shanghai aluminum might oscillate at a high level. [12]