Berun Chemical(SZ:000683) Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-01 02:21Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has subsided. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: The "anti-involution" sentiment has subsided. There are few maintenance works in soda ash plants, and the supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, resulting in weakened terminal demand. The inventory in soda ash plants is at a historical high. Overall, it is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,247 yuan/ton, with a basis of 3 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation [2]. - Inventory: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - Market: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Given the supply-demand imbalance in the soda ash market and the fading policy benefits, the short-term trend is expected to be volatile [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The peak maintenance season in summer is approaching, which will lead to a decline in production [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production volume is at a historical high. The production of photovoltaic glass, a major downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Session | Closing Price of Main Contract | Lowest Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous | 1,311 yuan/ton | 1,300 yuan/ton | -11 yuan/ton | | Current | 1,247 yuan/ton | 1,250 yuan/ton | 3 yuan/ton | | Change | -4.88% | -3.85% | -127.27% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method is -87 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method is -50.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is recovering from a historical low [15]. - Operating rate and production volume: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.02%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume is 723,800 tons, including 408,900 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and sales rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 105.66% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,000 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.10%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in operation has dropped significantly [27][30]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5-year average [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production volume, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, and growth rates [34].