铅锌日评：区间整理-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1] - For the zinc market, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. Fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market 3.1.1 Price Movements - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract dropped by 0.92% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.13%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.21% [1] 3.1.2 Market Fundamentals - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a slight decline in production due to equipment maintenance last week [1] - The price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and recyclers' supplies are limited. Some refineries reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion, but the acceptance of recycled lead prices has improved, and the start - up rate is gradually recovering [1] - On the demand side, overall supply and demand are increasing, and there are no obvious contradictions in the lead market. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices [1] 3.1.3 Investment Strategy - Short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3.2 Zinc Market 3.2.1 Price Movements - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 1.68% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract dropped by 1.43% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.20%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.24% [1] 3.2.2 Market Fundamentals - Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,800 yuan/ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased [1] - The cost support at the raw material end has weakened, smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output increase trend is obvious [1] - During the week, zinc prices continued to rise, and downstream off - season purchases significantly decreased [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, demand is in the off - season, and inventory continues to accumulate [1] 3.2.3 Investment Strategy - Short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3.3 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Heavy Metal Environmental Safety Hidden Danger Investigation and Rectification Action Plan (2025 - 2030)", focusing on 5 provinces (autonomous regions) and 21 cities (prefectures) [1] - A recycled lead smelter in the northwest plans to stop production due to multiple factors such as market downturn, raw material shortage, and water use restrictions [1] - Starting from July 31, 2025, certain products can be used for the performance and delivery of the zinc ingot futures contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - The zinc ore tender price of a mine in the southwest in August is about 4,000 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of about 200 yuan/metal ton [1]